America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Doug Short site had a post of April 30, 2019 (“Consumer Confidence Improved in April“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2019, and were last updated as of April 26, 2019. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.333: Data Source: FRED, …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Doug Short site post of April 26, 2019 titled “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 3.2%, Surprises Forecast” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) (pdf) of April 26, 2019: _________ I …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The post on the Doug Short site of April 25, 2019, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2019, updated on April 25, 2019. This value is $258,524 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 18, 2019 update (reflecting data through April 12, 2019) is -1.311. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …