America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On March 12, 2019, the Zillow Q1 2019 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the press release: Panelists are also asked each quarter to forecast the performance of U.S. home values. In Q1 2019, they on average predicted a 4.3 percent increase in …
The February NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, March 12, 2019. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Optimism Stabilizes Among Small Business Owners.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased in February by .5 points to 101.7. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): …
Jerome Powell gave his first interview to “60 Minutes” last (Sunday, March 10, 2019) night. The video of the Interview and transcript can be seen at “Jerome Powell 60 Minutes Interview: Full Uncut Transcript.” Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable in the order they appear in the transcript. (Please note that in …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2018:Q4). The last value (as of the March 7, 2019 update) is $104.329232 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …