On July 5, 2018, The Conference Board released the 2nd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 63, down from 65 in the first quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this July 5 Press Release include:
CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions was about the same as in the first quarter of 2018, with 74 percent saying conditions are better compared to six months ago. CEO sentiment was also virtually unchanged regarding the assessment of current conditions in their own industries, with about 51 percent saying conditions are better than six months ago.
Looking ahead, however, CEOs’ expectations regarding the economic outlook are much less optimistic than last quarter. Now, just 48 percent expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, compared to 63 percent in the second quarter. CEOs’ expectations regarding short-term prospects in their own industries over the next six months were relatively flat, with only 42 percent anticipating an improvement in conditions.
Last month, The Business Roundtable also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2018. Notable excerpts from the June 5, 2018 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Eases, Remains Near Historic High“:
The Q2 2018 CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite of CEO expectations for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months — fell to 111.1 in the second quarter of 2018, declining 7.5 points from 118.6 in the first quarter. While this is the first time the Index has declined in nearly two years, the Index remains well above its historical average of 81.2 for the sixth straight quarter. This signals a continued positive direction for the U.S. economy despite modest declines in all three components of the Index. The new survey also shows a CEO projection of 2.7 percent U.S. GDP growth in 2018, a small decrease from the 2.8 percent projection last quarter.
CEO plans for hiring dipped slightly to 95.5, down 3.0 points from the previous quarter. Plans for capital investment fell to 107.6, a decrease of 7.8 points from Q1 2018. Expectations for sales fell to 130.3, a decrease of 11.6 points from last quarter.
Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2791.19 as this post is written