Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The July 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 23, 2018:
The CFNAI, with current reading of .43:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 23, 2018;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .16:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 23, 2018;
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of July 20, 2018 (incorporating data through July 13, 2018) the WLI was at 148.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at .9%.
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through July 14, 2018:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the July 19, 2018 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in June” (pdf) the LEI was at 109.8, the CEI was at 103.9, and the LAG was 105.4 in June.
An excerpt from the release:
“The U.S. LEI increased in June, pointing to continuing solid growth in the U.S. economy,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The widespread growth in leading indicators, with the exception of housing permits which declined once again, does not suggest any considerable growth slowdown in the short-term.”
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2806.41 as this post is written