Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of July 31, 2018

The Doug Short site had a post of July 31, 2018 (“Consumer Confidence Increases Marginally in July“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I …

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Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q1 2018

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of July 5, 2018, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2018.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the July 19, 2018 update (reflecting data through July 13, 2018) is -1.181. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …

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Money Supply Charts Through June 2018

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators July 2018

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 23, 2018: The CFNAI, with current reading of .43: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …

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