Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of July 31, 2018

The Doug Short site had a post of July 31, 2018 (“Consumer Confidence Increases Marginally in July“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of July 31, 2018

Employment Cost Index (ECI) – Second Quarter 2018

While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index:  what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly … Read moreEmployment Cost Index (ECI) – Second Quarter 2018

Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q1 2018

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of July 5, 2018, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2018.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read moreAnother Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q1 2018

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through July 27, 2018

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2018, and were last updated as of July 27, 2018. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.321: Data Source: FRED, … Read moreVelocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through July 27, 2018

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 2nd Quarter 2018

For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Doug Short site post titled “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 4.1%” post of July 27, 2018, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q2 2018 Advance Estimate (pdf) of July 27, 2018: _________ I post various indicators and … Read moreReal GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 2nd Quarter 2018

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – July 27, 2018 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – July 27, 2018 Update

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through June 2018

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through June 2018, updated on July 26, 2018. This value is $251,884 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through June 2018

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the July 19, 2018 update (reflecting data through July 13, 2018) is -1.181. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Money Supply Charts Through June 2018

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM … Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through June 2018

Updates Of Economic Indicators July 2018

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 23, 2018: The CFNAI, with current reading of .43: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators July 2018