America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of July 19, 2018, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as July 12, 2018: Year 2018 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $157.82/share -From …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 12, 2018 update (reflecting data through July 6, 2018) is -1.118. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 109 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others …
The July 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 12, 2018. The headline is “Economists in New Survey See Federal Reserve on Autopilot.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An excerpt: …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 5, 2018 update (reflecting data through June 29, 2018) is -1.076. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
On July 5, 2018, The Conference Board released the 2nd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 63, down from 65 in the first quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this July 5 Press Release include: CEOs’ assessment …