Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q4 2017

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of April 5, 2018, titled “Recession Probability Models – April 2018.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read moreAnother Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q4 2017

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through April 27, 2018

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2018, and were last updated as of April 27, 2018.  As one can see, two of the three measures are very near … Read moreVelocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through April 27, 2018

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of April 27, 2018

Doug Short’s site had a post of April 27, 2018 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment:  April Final Improves“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of April 27, 2018

Employment Cost Index (ECI) – First Quarter 2018

While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index:  what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly … Read moreEmployment Cost Index (ECI) – First Quarter 2018

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 1st Quarter 2018

For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.3%” post of April 27, 2018, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q1 2018 Advance Estimate (pdf) of April 27, 2018: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they … Read moreReal GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 1st Quarter 2018

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through March 2018

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2018, updated on April 26, 2018. This value is $254,947 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through March 2018

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the April 19, 2018 update (reflecting data through April 13, 2018) is -.97. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Money Supply Charts Through March 2018

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM … Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through March 2018

The U.S. Economic Situation – April 24, 2018 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, … Read moreThe U.S. Economic Situation – April 24, 2018 Update

Updates Of Economic Indicators April 2018

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 23, 2018: The CFNAI, with current reading of .10: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators April 2018