America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 1, 2018 update (reflecting data through January 26, 2018) is -1.431. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent volatility in the stock market. Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility is …
For reference purposes, below is a chart of the S&P500 and VIX from year 2003 through Monday’s (February 5, 2018) close. The closing price for the S&P500 was 2648.94 and the VIX had a closing value of 37.32. A dashed blue line depicts the VIX value of 20. Price labels are also shown: (click on …
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his February 5, 2018 post titled …
On February 4, 2018 there was an interview of Janet Yellen that aired on the CBS “Sunday Morning” show. The interview was titled “Janet Yellen: The exit interview.” Below are segment excerpts and Janet Yellen’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Friday’s (February 2, 2018) close, which had a closing value of 17.31. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The …
For reference purposes, below are five charts that display growth in payroll employment, as depicted by the Total Nonfarm Payrolls measures (FRED data series PAYEMS). PAYEMS, which is seasonally adjusted, is defined in Financial Reserve Economic Data [FRED] as: All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number …