Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The November 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 21, 2017:
The CFNAI, with current reading of .65:
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November 21, 2017;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .28:
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November 21, 2017;
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of November 17, 2017 (incorporating data through November 10, 2017) the WLI was at 145.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.7%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of November 17, 2017:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through November 11, 2017:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the November 20, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in October” (pdf) the LEI was at 130.4, the CEI was at 116.2, and the LAG was 125.5 in October.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI increased sharply in October, as the impact of the hurricanes dissipated,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The growth of the LEI, coupled with widespread strengths among its components, suggests that solid growth in the US economy will continue through the holiday season and into the new year.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of November 20, 2017:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2599.42 as this post is written