Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of October 31, 2017

Doug Short had a blog post of October 31, 2017 (“Consumer Confidence Highest in 17 Years“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of October 31, 2017

Employment Cost Index (ECI) – Third Quarter 2017

While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index:  what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly … Read moreEmployment Cost Index (ECI) – Third Quarter 2017

Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q2 2017

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of October 4, 2017, titled “Recession Probability Models – October 2017.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read moreAnother Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q2 2017

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through October 27, 2017

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2017, and were last updated as of October 27, 2017.  As one can see, two of the three measures are very near … Read moreVelocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through October 27, 2017

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 3rd Quarter 2017

For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 3.0%” post of October 27, 2017, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q3 2017 Advance Estimate (pdf) of October 27, 2017: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they … Read moreReal GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 3rd Quarter 2017

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through September 2017

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September 2017, updated on October 25, 2017. This value is $238,695 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through September 2017

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the October 19, 2017 update (reflecting data through October 13, 2017) is -1.555. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 23, 2017: The CFNAI, with current reading of .17: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators October 2017

The U.S. Economic Situation – October 23, 2017 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, … Read moreThe U.S. Economic Situation – October 23, 2017 Update

Money Supply Charts Through September 2017

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM … Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through September 2017