Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The January 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 26, 2017: (current reading of CFNAI is .14; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.07):
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of January 20, 2017 (incorporating data through January 13, 2017) the WLI was at 145.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 12.0%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of January 20, 2017:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through January 21, 2017:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the January 26, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” (pdf) the LEI was at 124.6, the CEI was at 114.3, and the LAG was 123.4 in December.
An excerpt from the release:
“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased in December, suggesting the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace, perhaps even accelerating slightly in the early months of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “December’s large gain was mainly driven by improving sentiment about the outlook and suggests the business cycle still showed strong momentum in the final months of 2016.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of January 16, 2017:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2299.51 as this post is written