America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of that measure, with a current reading (updated …
The June 2016 Livingston Survey published on June 8, 2016 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2016 2100.0 Dec. 31, 2016 2140.0 June 30, 2017 2167.8 Dec. 29, 2017 2200.6 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters …
The May NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 14, 2016. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Rises Modestly In May.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .2 points in May to 93.8. Here are some excerpts from that I find particularly notable (but don’t …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 1Q 2016“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 to 2016:Q1). The last value (as of June 9, 2016) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of June 9, 2016 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q1.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge image) As seen in …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The June 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 9, 2016. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Sharply Lower Estimates of Job Growth in the Next Year.” As indicated in the article, 66 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question. I found numerous items to be notable – …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …