Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The June 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 23, 2014:
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of June 20, 2014 (incorporating data through June 13, 2014) the WLI was at 135.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at 4.4%.
Here is a chart of the ECRI WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s June 20, 2014 post titled “ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update” :
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through June 14, 2014:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the June 19, 2014 press release, the LEI was at 101.7 and the CEI was at 109.0 in May.
An excerpt from the June 19 release:
“May’s increase in the LEI, the fourth consecutive one, was broad based,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Housing permits held the index back slightly but the LEI still points to an expanding economy and its pace may even pick up in the second half of the year.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of June 19 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increased Again in May“ :
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1960.90 as this post is written