Today (October 9, 2013), The Conference Board and PwC released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 54, down from 62 in the second quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this October 9 Press Release include:
CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions declined considerably. Only 33 percent claim conditions are better compared to six months ago, down from 60 percent in the second quarter. Business leaders are also less positive about conditions in their own industries. Approximately 32 percent say conditions in their own industries have improved, down from 40 percent last quarter.
CEOs’ short-term outlook also retreated from last quarter. Currently, 42 percent of business leaders expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 60 percent in the second quarter. Expectations for their own industries are also more tepid, with just 34 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement in conditions in the months ahead, down from 53 percent last quarter.
The Business Roundtable also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2013 last month. Notable excerpts from the September 18 release, titled “CEOs Forecast Continued Slow Economic Growth” include the following:
Overall CEO expectations for the U.S. economy dropped modestly in the third quarter, as reflected in the composite Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index, which declined to 79.1 from 84.3 in the previous quarter. CEO expectations for 2013 GDP growth matched the 2.2 percent annual rate reported in last quarter’s survey.
Overall, hiring expectations were essentially flat, ticking up only slightly from the previous quarter due to fewer CEOs expecting a decrease in hiring.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1654.22 as this post is written