In the December 15 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Outlook 2013.”
Included in the story, 10 stock-market strategists give various forecasts for 2013 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields.
A couple of excerpts:
The 10 strategists recently surveyed by Barron’s see more gains ahead next year. Their mean S&P prediction for 2013 — 1562 — implies a 10% price gain from current levels.
Ironically, a stronger conviction about stocks comes despite the strategists’ predictions of ho-hum growth next year in corporate earnings. Their mean forecast for S&P 500 profits is $108 a share, up 5% from this year’s estimated $102.
The article also mentions that a separate group of industry analysts has a 2013 earnings forecast of $113. This “bottom up” figure of $113 seems to be a widely-held consensus level.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1431.91 as this post is written