The February 2011 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published February 14, 2011.  The headline is “Consumer and Business Spending to Spur Expanding U.S. Economy.

I found this excerpt from the article to be notable:

“Since late last summer, the economy appears to have strengthened considerably. The economists put the risk of a return to recession at 12%, down from 22% in September.

The headwinds to expansion appear to be subsiding. A majority of economists—32 of 46 who answered the question—say that rising commodity prices are due to supply-and-demand issues stemming from world-wide growth, not bubbles blown by monetary or fiscal policy.”

I also found a variety of topics seen in the Q&A (spreadsheet tab) to be interesting, including questions on the possibilities of state defaults and state bankruptcies.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2011 : 3.5%

Unemployment Rate:

for 6/1/2011: 9.0%

for 12/1/2011: 8.6%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

for 6/30/2011: 3.74%

for 12/31/2011: 4.07%


for 6/1/2011: 2.1%

for 12/1/2011: 2.1%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 6/30/2011: $90.68

for 12/31/2011: $91.64

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1332.32 as this post is written