The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published February 14, 2011. The headline is “Consumer and Business Spending to Spur Expanding U.S. Economy.”
I found this excerpt from the article to be notable:
“Since late last summer, the economy appears to have strengthened considerably. The economists put the risk of a return to recession at 12%, down from 22% in September.
The headwinds to expansion appear to be subsiding. A majority of economists—32 of 46 who answered the question—say that rising commodity prices are due to supply-and-demand issues stemming from world-wide growth, not bubbles blown by monetary or fiscal policy.”
I also found a variety of topics seen in the Q&A (spreadsheet tab) to be interesting, including questions on the possibilities of state defaults and state bankruptcies.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2011 : 3.5%
for 6/1/2011: 9.0%
for 12/1/2011: 8.6%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
for 6/30/2011: 3.74%
for 12/31/2011: 4.07%
for 6/1/2011: 2.1%
for 12/1/2011: 2.1%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 6/30/2011: $90.68
for 12/31/2011: $91.64
(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here
SPX at 1332.32 as this post is written