The following is from the Minutes of The Federal Open Market Committee of January 25-26, 2011, the Summary of Economic Projections. As stated:
“In conjunction with the January 25–26, 2011, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, all of whom participate in the deliberations of the FOMC, submitted projections for growth of real output, the unemployment rate, and inflation for the years 2011 to 2013 and over the longer run.”
Among the commentary and detail is this summary table:
Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, January 2011
Percent
| Variable | Central tendency1 | Range2 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Longer run | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Longer run | |
| Change in real GDP | 3.4 to 3.9 | 3.5 to 4.4 | 3.7 to 4.6 | 2.5 to 2.8 | 3.2 to 4.2 | 3.4 to 4.5 | 3.0 to 5.0 | 2.4 to 3.0 |
| November projection | 3.0 to 3.6 | 3.6 to 4.5 | 3.5 to 4.6 | 2.5 to 2.8 | 2.5 to 4.0 | 2.6 to 4.7 | 3.0 to 5.0 | 2.4 to 3.0 |
| Unemployment rate | 8.8 to 9.0 | 7.6 to 8.1 | 6.8 to 7.2 | 5.0 to 6.0 | 8.4 to 9.0 | 7.2 to 8.4 | 6.0 to 7.9 | 5.0 to 6.2 |
| November projection | 8.9 to 9.1 | 7.7 to 8.2 | 6.9 to 7.4 | 5.0 to 6.0 | 8.2 to 9.3 | 7.0 to 8.7 | 5.9 to 7.9 | 5.0 to 6.3 |
| PCE inflation | 1.3 to 1.7 | 1.0 to 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.0 | 1.6 to 2.0 | 1.0 to 2.0 | 0.7 to 2.2 | 0.6 to 2.0 | 1.5 to 2.0 |
| November projection | 1.1 to 1.7 | 1.1 to 1.8 | 1.2 to 2.0 | 1.6 to 2.0 | 0.9 to 2.2 | 0.6 to 2.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 1.5 to 2.0 |
| Core PCE inflation3 | 1.0 to 1.3 | 1.0 to 1.5 | 1.2 to 2.0 | 0.7 to 1.8 | 0.6 to 2.0 | 0.6 to 2.0 | ||
| November projection | 0.9 to 1.6 | 1.0 to 1.6 | 1.1 to 2.0 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.6 to 2.0 | 0.5 to 2.0 | ||
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here
SPX at 1336.32 as this post is written