America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I would like to quickly clarify a phrase I have been using on this blog… The phrase is “this period of economic weakness.” The reason I use the term is that, as I have explained in this prior post: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/06/22/are-we-in-a-depression/ that our current economic environment is difficult to classify. Furthermore, it is a very fluid situation that can …
On July 16, I wrote the following: “During periods of economic decline, it is relatively common to have periods of “relief” from decline – then a resumption of further decline. This is what I believe we are experiencing now, both in the economy as well as the stock market rally (which I have previously referred …
I recently ran across a quote from Laura Tyson. It highlights some issues with regard to economic forecasting. Here is her quote: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31910717/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/ “We are in a balance sheet recession,” said Laura Tyson, a former head of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration who is now one of President Obama’s economic advisors. …
After I wrote a post yesterday about Nouriel Roubini’s latest thoughts on the economy going forward, he came out with a statement that elaborated upon his stance. It can be found at the following link: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31947275 As I pointed out yesterday, I find his views and forecasts to be important for a number of reasons, …
I find it interesting that certain financial and economic terms seem to have completely fallen out of use, especially in the press. Among these I would include “Quality of Earnings” and “Fiduciary Responsibility.” As well, “Moral Hazard” is still used but surprisingly much less than one would think. It seems to be on the way out. What is the …
The recently released minutes of the June 23-24 FOMC meeting, found here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20090624.htm stated the following: “The staff projected that real GDP would decline at a substantially slower rate in the second quarter than it had in the first quarter and then increase in the second half of 2009, though less rapidly than potential output. …
In this post I would like to highlight ECRI and some of its recent statements, after which I will make comments. From a recent (7/14/09) Newsweek story, quoting ECRI, found here: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1481/ “From our vantage point, every week and every month our call is getting stronger, not weaker, including over the last few weeks,” says …
There was a recent article in The Wall Street Journal titled “Detroit’s Food Banks Strain to Serve Middle Class”: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124718194179420129.html One aspect that caught my attention was the mention of people who are receiving aid for the first time. In fact, the story points out that some people who used to be donors to the …
I would like to mention an article in today’s Wall Street Journal, titled “The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think.” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124753066246235811.html I found the article does a good job of highlighting certain characteristics of this period of economic weakness. These characteristics reinforce a theme mentioned previously on this blog, that we are in a “new (economic) environment.” …
In previous posts I have spoken of the comparisons between our current period of economic weakness and that of The Great Depression. Those posts were on June 22 and June 15, and can be found at these links: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/06/22/are-we-avoiding-a-depression/ https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/06/15/great-depression-stock-charts-vs-our-current-period/ I would like to reiterate my view, seen in the above links, that although our current …