EconomicGreenfield

In the December 19 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Buckle Up!”

Included in the story, 10 “stock-market strategists and investment managers” give various forecasts including 2012 S&P500 profits, 2012 S&P500 year-end price targets, 2012 & 2013 GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields.

As seen on page 27:

The mean prediction of the 10 stock-market strategists and investment managers surveyed by Barron’s is that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will end 2012 at about 1360, some 11.5% higher than Friday’s close of 1220.

Also stated in the article:

The top-down call, or that of Wall Street’s market strategists, is that earnings per share will rise about 7% in 2012, to $105, for companies in the S&P 500, from this year’s estimated $98. The typically more optimistic bottom-up crowd of industry analysts calls for a 10% increase, to $108, although that forecast is down from an estimate of $113 in July.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1243.72 as this post is written

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found in the under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

Currently (their latest estimates are as of  November 22), their estimates for 2011 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $97.48/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N.A.

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $89.36/share

Currently, their estimates for 2012 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $107.84/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $105.32/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $98.14/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1246.96 as this post is written

Yesterday (September 19) The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Wall Street’s Optimism Fades.”

The article contains a variety of forecasts and commentary regarding the stock market and earnings.

Here are two excerpts of forecasts:

Goldman Sachs last Wednesday ratcheted down its end-of-year prediction for the S&P 500 to 1250, from its previous forecast of 1400. Last Monday, Wells Fargo dropped its forecast to 1250 from 1390. And on Friday, Citigroup lowered its target to 1325 from 1400.

The S&P 500 ended last week at 1216.01, which leaves most of the predictions still looking relatively bullish. Strategists on average expect the S&P 500 to end the year at 1309, according to Birinyi Associates—a rise of 7.6% from Friday’s close through year end.

At the beginning of 2011, strategists were looking for an 8.5% gain for the entire year, predicting a year-end close of 1365.

also:

Consensus earnings estimates for the S&P 500 companies this year fell below $100 a share last week, according to S&P Capital IQ, down from $100.31 on Aug. 24. For the past few years, analysts have mostly been right to stay optimistic; strong company earnings have been a big driver of the S&P 500′s 75% rise from March 2009.

To be sure, the consensus forecast for annual per-share earnings of $99.91 is still bullish, reflecting confidence that the economy can avoid a double-dip recession. In 2010, S&P 500 earnings were $84 a share, according to Barclays. But the falling forecasts indicate that even the most sanguine analysts are starting to worry about the burdens of a sagging economy and policy uncertainty.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1219.79 as this post is written

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My previous posts concerning their estimates can be found in the under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

Currently (as of September 2), their estimates for 2011 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $98.58/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N.A.

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $88.64/share

Currently, their estimates for 2012 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $112.55/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $101.91/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $95.67/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1180.31 as this post is written

In the September 5 edition of Barron’s, the cover story was titled “Which Way Up?”

Included in the story, 15 “buy- and sell-side strategists” give various forecasts including 2011 and 2012 S&P500 EPS, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields.

As seen on page 23, “The average of their expectations” for the S&P500 at year end “is about 1300.”

Also, the consensus estimate for this year’s (2011) S&P500 earnings is seen at “about $90″ and for 2012 $102.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1173.97 as this post is written

On June 27 The Wall Street Journal published an article titled “Stocks Fall.  Optimism Stands Tall.”

As seen in this article:

Analysts expect the S&P 500 companies to earn $99.86 a share in aggregate this year, up 2.3% from their April 1 estimate, according to FactSet. Strategists expect $95.24, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. The median gap between the two groups is now 5.6%, the biggest disparity in at least three years, he says.

For 2012, the divergence is even wider: $112 a share for analysts, compared with $105 for strategists.

Yesterday a Bloomberg article concerning S&P500 sales and profits also indicated that 2011 earnings are forecast in the $99/share range, as seen in this excerpt:

Revenue gains may push S&P 500 profits to $99.08 a share this year, up 17 percent from 2010, after rising 37 percent a year earlier, the biggest two-year expansion since 1995, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1280.10 as this post is written

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My previous posts concerning their estimates can be found in the under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $98.06/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $94.89/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $95.69/share

Currently, their estimates for 2012 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $111.79/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $101.21/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $100.97/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1331.10 as this post is written

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  My previous posts concerning their estimates can be found on September 17,  May 30, and December 30)

Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $96.21/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $93.63/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $96.26/share

Currently, their estimates for 2012 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of (N.A.)

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $98.30/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $97.12/share

As seen in previous posts, there seemed to be an earlier overall consensus that 2011 S&P500 operating earnings will be in the $90-$95/share range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1281.87 as this post is written

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  My previous post concerning their estimates can be found at the September 17 and May 30 posts)

Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of $94.79/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $88.46/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $86.84/share

Currently, their estimates for 2012 add to the following:

-From a “bottoms up” perspective, operating earnings of (N.A.)

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $93.32/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $90.01/share

As seen in previous posts, there seems to be an overall consensus that 2011 S&P500 operating earnings will be in the $90-$95/share range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1259.78 as this post is written

Today’s Barron’s has a cover story titled “Outlook 2011.”

Among the average forecasts of the 10 respondents (strategists and investment managers) was the following:

• A year-end 2011 S&P500 target of 1373.25

• $92.90 S&P500 EPS for 2011

• $100.83  S&P500 EPS for 2012 (an average from 6 respondents)

• 3.2% GDP growth for 2011

In a separate story from Bloomberg of December 13 titled “No New Normal as Strategists Predict 11% S&P500 Gain” the average figures from 11 respondents are similar; a year-end 2011 S&P500 target of 1379 and an EPS of $92/share.

Both the Bloomberg and (especially the) Barron’s stories have a variety of economic and market commentary accompanying the forecasts.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1243.91 as this post is written