Tag Archives: S&P500 Earnings

2018 Estimates For S&P500 Earnings & Price Levels

In the December 11, 2017 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “2018 Outlook:  The Bull Market’s Next Act.”

Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2017 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields.

A couple of excerpts:

Given synchronized global growth and rising corporate profits, 2018 could be another good year for stocks, notwithstanding the bull’s advancing age. The S&P 500 could gain about 7%, mirroring similar gains in corporate profits, according to the consensus forecast of 10 investment strategists at major U.S. investment banks and money-management firms surveyed by Barron’s each December. The group’s predictions range from 2675 to 3100, with a mean estimate of about 2840.

Also:

OUR PROGNOSTICATORS EXPECT S&P 500 earnings to climb to $145 in 2018 from an expected $131.45 this year. Most estimates assume that global growth will spur earnings gains, with an additional boost coming from U.S. tax cuts. Depending on the final tax bill, they figure that lower corporate taxes could be worth 5% to 10% of earnings growth, or anywhere from $7 to $14 a share. But in the unlikely event that no tax cuts are passed, the market could drop sharply.

Industry analysts forecast S&P earnings of $146.20 for next year, not including tax cuts. If analysts revise their estimates higher in coming months to account for the positive impact of lower taxes, stocks could get a further boost.

As seen in the article, the investment strategists expect an average 2018 GDP growth of 2.595%.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2658.04 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of November 17, 2017:

from page 24:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 projected EPS trends

from page 25:

actual and projected S&P500 EPS

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2599.03 as this post is written

S&P500 EPS Forecasts Years 2017, 2018, 2019

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 23 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of November 21, 2017, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share, the Year 2015 value is $117.46, and the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share:

Year 2017 estimate:

$131.40/share

Year 2018 estimate:

$146.04/share

Year 2019 estimate:

$160.31/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2600.21 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2017 And 2018 – As Of November 16, 2017

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of November 16, 2017:

Year 2017 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $125.15/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $114.97/share

Year 2018 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $144.10/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $132.89/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2598.96 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of October 13, 2017:

from page 24:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts 2017 & 2018

from page 25:

S&P500 actual and expected EPS

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2561.70 as this post is written

S&P500 EPS Forecasts 2017, 2018, 2019

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 23 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of October 17, 2017, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share, the Year 2015 value is $117.46, and the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share:

Year 2017 estimate:

$130.53/share

Year 2018 estimate:

$145.67/share

Year 2019 estimate:

$159.20/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2560.42 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2017 And 2018 – As Of October 5, 2017

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of October 5, 2017:

Year 2017 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $127.08/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $116.50/share

Year 2018 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $144.71/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $134.12/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2559.36 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of September 15, 2017:

from page 21:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 projected EPS

from page 22:

S&P500 EPS trends

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2503.87 as this post is written

S&P500 Forecasted EPS 2017, 2018, 2019

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 20 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of September 15, 2017, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share, the Year 2015 value is $117.46, and the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share:

Year 2017 estimate:

$131.38/share

Year 2018 estimate:

$145.76/share

Year 2019 estimate:

$158.92/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2506.56 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2017 And 2018 – As Of September 13, 2017

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 13, 2017:

Year 2017 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $127.13/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $114.46/share

Year 2018 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $144.48/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $131.13/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2503.68 as this post is written