Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

February 7 Gallup Poll On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

Thursday, February 9th, 2012

On February 7, Gallup released a poll titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Climbs for Fifth Straight Month.”

A few notable excerpts:

Americans’ confidence in the economy improved for the fifth month in a row in January, with Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index reaching -27, its highest point since May of last year. Americans, however, are not yet as confident as they were a year ago.

also:

Americans’ confidence in the economy has been improving every month since August, when it hit recession levels, plummeting to -52 after the heated battle over the federal debt ceiling in Washington, and Standard and Poor’s subsequent Aug. 5 downgrading of the nation’s credit rating.

also:

Economic confidence among upper-income Americans had sunk below that of middle- and lower-income Americans in August. However, it has since recovered, and again is better than that of their lower-income counterparts — as is typical.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1349.96 as this post is written

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Food Stamps As Of February 2012

Wednesday, February 8th, 2012

This post is an update to previous posts concerning food stamps.  The program is officially called “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,” or SNAP.  As stated on the SNAP website, “As of Oct. 1, 2008, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is the new name for the federal Food Stamp Program.”

The data was last updated February 1, 2012, reflecting November 2011 levels.

Here is a table showing various monthly statistics with regard to national participation and costs going back to FY2009.  As seen in this table, the number of people participating as of November 2011 is 46,286,294, up 6.17% from year-ago (November 2010) levels.  As a reference point, the figure as of June 2009 (the official end of the recession as defined by the NBER) was 34,882,031.  Longer-term annual data is also available.

As I wrote in the April 12, 2010 post, “Of course, what is particularly disconcerting is not only the extent of participation in these programs, but the fact that this is yet another notable statistic that is getting worse well after the purported end of the recession.”

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1347.05 as this post is written

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Fairness Of The U.S. Economic System

Friday, February 3rd, 2012

On January 25, Gallup published poll results in a release titled “Americans Divided on Whether U.S. Economic System Is Unfair.”

In the poll results, it is seen that 45% think the economic system is “fair” while 49% think it is “unfair,” with 6% having “no opinion.”

The poll also asks “Do you think the U.S. economic system is fair or unfair to you, personally?”

This issue of whether the economic system is “fair” is very important.  I believe that “fairness” of an economic system – especially that of one considered “capitalist” in nature – is a very complex issue.

While I have many thoughts on the issue, I will defer commenting on the issue of fairness of the economic system primarily because my comments would be exceedingly lengthy and complex.

However, for now, I will say that any discussion of fairness would include the concept of Moral Hazard, which I have previously commented upon.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1342.57 as this post is written

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through December 2011

Tuesday, January 31st, 2012

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator.

For reference, here are a few charts depicting this measure.

First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December, last updated on January 26.  This December value is 214,522 ($ Millions) :

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Here is the chart depicting the measure on a Percentage Change from a Year Ago basis:

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Lastly, a chart from Doug Short’s post of January 26 titled “Durable Goods Orders Up 3%, Beating Expectations” showing the Durable Goods New Orders vs. the S&P500:

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1313.01 as this post is written

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The State of the Union Address – Notable Excerpts

Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

I found President Obama’s State of the Union Address last night to contain some noteworthy comments.  While I could comment extensively on many parts of the speech, for now I will indicate excerpts that I found most relevant, and may comment upon them at a future point.  I am highlighting these excerpts for many reasons; it should be noted that I do not necessarily agree with all of them.

Here are the excerpts I found most relevant, in the order they occurred in the speech:

Think about the America within our reach:  A country that leads the world in educating its people.  An America that attracts a new generation of high-tech manufacturing and high-paying jobs.  A future where we’re in control of our own energy, and our security and prosperity aren’t so tied to unstable parts of the world.  An economy built to last, where hard work pays off, and responsibility is rewarded.

We can do this.  I know we can, because we’ve done it before.

also:

…the basic American promise that if you worked hard, you could do well enough to raise a family, own a home, send your kids to college, and put a little away for retirement.

The defining issue of our time is how to keep that promise alive.  No challenge is more urgent.  No debate is more important.  We can either settle for a country where a shrinking number of people do really well while a growing number of Americans barely get by, or we can restore an economy where everyone gets a fair shot, and everyone does their fair share, and everyone plays by the same set of rules.  (Applause.)  What’s at stake aren’t Democratic values or Republican values, but American values.  And we have to reclaim them.

also:

Tonight, I want to speak about how we move forward, and lay out a blueprint for an economy that’s built to last -– an economy built on American manufacturing, American energy, skills for American workers, and a renewal of American values.

also:

On the day I took office, our auto industry was on the verge of collapse.  Some even said we should let it die.  With a million jobs at stake, I refused to let that happen.  In exchange for help, we demanded responsibility.  We got workers and automakers to settle their differences.  We got the industry to retool and restructure.  Today, General Motors is back on top as the world’s number-one automaker.  (Applause.)  Chrysler has grown faster in the U.S. than any major car company.  Ford is investing billions in U.S. plants and factories.  And together, the entire industry added nearly 160,000 jobs.

We bet on American workers.  We bet on American ingenuity.  And tonight, the American auto industry is back.

also:

Third, if you’re an American manufacturer, you should get a bigger tax cut.  If you’re a high-tech manufacturer, we should double the tax deduction you get for making your products here.  And if you want to relocate in a community that was hit hard when a factory left town, you should get help financing a new plant, equipment, or training for new workers.  (Applause.)

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1314.65 as this post is written

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January 18 Gallup Poll Results On Americans’ Personal Financial Situation – Notable Excerpts

Thursday, January 19th, 2012

On January 18, Gallup published poll results titled “Half in U.S. Feel Worse Off Financially.”

The poll asked various questions, including this one :

Would you say that you are financially better off now than you were a year ago, or are you financially worse off now?

An excerpt from the results, as discussed in the aforementioned January 18 release:

Nearly half of U.S. adults, 49%, say they are worse off financially today than a year ago, while 29% say they are better off and 21% volunteer that their finances haven’t changed. The percentage rating their current finances negatively compared with a year ago is down from the high of 55% recorded twice in 2008, but is still among the highest in Gallup’s four decades of measuring this attitude.

The chart shown in the poll results shows that the “% Worse off” results are notably elevated since latter-2008, relative to the other results going back to 1976.

While the question asked is somewhat subjective, these poll results seem to further support other information (much of which has been highlighted in previous blog posts) that despite an economic recovery/economic expansion (as officially designated by NBER) since June 2009 a large percentage of people in the United States are not seeing their personal financial condition improve.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1310.79 as this post is written

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Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of 12-30-11

Friday, December 30th, 2011

In yesterday’s post (“4 Confidence Charts – December 2011“) I displayed four charts indicating various long-term consumer and small business confidence readings as compared to the S&P500.

Doug Short had a blog post of December 27 (“Consumer Confidence at an Eight-Month High“) in which he presents the Conference Board and University of Michigan charts in a different fashion.  They are presented below:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find highly noteworthy.  Of course, the continuing very subdued absolute levels of these two surveys is disconcerting.

Also, I find the “behavior” of these readings to be quite disparate as compared to the other post-recession periods, as shown in the charts between the gray shaded areas (the gray areas denote recessions as defined by the NBER.)

While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings to be very problematical, especially in light of a variety of other highly disconcerting measures highlighted in this blog.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1263.02 as this post is written

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4 Confidence Charts – December 2011

Thursday, December 29th, 2011

Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings.  These are from the SentimenTrader.com site.

I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is rare.

Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500:

(click on each chart to enlarge image)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last updated 12-27-11:

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University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, last updated 12-22-11:

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Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (formerly the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index) last updated 12-22-11:

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NFIB Small Business Optimism, last updated 11-8-11:

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As one can see, these charts continue to show subdued readings, especially when viewed from a long-term perspective.

These charts should be interesting to monitor going forward.  Although I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, they do help to delineate how the economic environment is being perceived.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1256.14 as this post is written

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Total Household Net Worth As Of 3Q 2011 – A Long-Term Chart

Monday, December 19th, 2011

In the December 13 post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 3Q 2011“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP.

For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2011:Q3).  The last value (as of December 9, 2011) is $57.353 Trillion:

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1219.66 as this post is written

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Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 3Q 2011

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of December 8, 2011 titled “Q3 Flow of Funds:  Household Net Worth declines $2.4 Trillion in Q3.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP.  The underlying data is from The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds 3Q 2011 report:

(click on chart to enlarge image)

As seen in the above-referenced CalculatedRisk blog post:

The Fed estimated that household net worth declined $2.4 trillion in Q3. Household net worth peaked at $66.8 trillion in Q2 2007, and then net worth fell to $50.4 trillion in Q1 2009 (a loss of $16.4 trillion). Household net worth was at $57.4 trillion in Q3 2011 (up $7.0 trillion from the trough, but down $2.4 trillion in Q3).

The Fed estimated that the value of household real estate fell $98 billion to $16.1 trillion in Q3 2011. The value of household real estate has fallen $6.6 trillion from the peak – and is still falling in 2011.

My comments:

As I have written in previous posts on this Household Net Worth (as a percent of GDP) topic:

As one can see, the first outsized peak was in 2000, and attained after the stock market bull market / stock market bubbles and economic strength.  The second outsized peak was in 2007, right near the peak of the housing bubble as well as near the stock market peak.

As seen on the chart, the Total Household Net Worth is making an upturn, but is significantly below the prior 2007 peak.

I could extensively write about various interpretations that can be made from this chart.  One way this chart can be interpreted is a gauge of “what’s in it for me?” as far as the aggregated wealth citizens are gleaning from economic activity, as measured compared to GDP.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

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