Notable Technical And Sentiment Extremes In The Stock Market

In this post I would like to highlight various areas which I believe indicate excessively positive sentiment and problematical technical analysis measures in the stock market. While the full list is extensive, I believe the list below represents a “sample” of how there is a high level of “frothiness” and other excess in the markets, …

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Building Financial Danger – February 2, 2012 Update

Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. -an excerpt from the FOMC Statement of January 25, 2012 On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief fifth update to that post. My overall analysis indicates …

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The S&P500 Vs. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index – January 12, 2012

Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, since 2006: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com) – It is notable …

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Building Financial Danger – January 11, 2012 Update

On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief fourth update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. I continue to believe the October 4 1074.77 low on the S&P500 will not be a …

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Financial Stocks – January 4 2012 Update Concerning Poor “Price Action”

On June 29 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.” I continue to believe that the “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting.  I view the poor performance of these financial and brokerage stocks to be one indicator among (very) many that serves as a “red flag” as to …

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Financial Stocks – Relative Price To Overall Stock Market – January 3 2012 Update

In the June 29 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable.  It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would indicate. …

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2012 Estimates For S&P500 Earnings & Price Levels

In the December 19 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Buckle Up!” Included in the story, 10 “stock-market strategists and investment managers” give various forecasts including 2012 S&P500 profits, 2012 S&P500 year-end price targets, 2012 & 2013 GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. As seen on page 27: The mean prediction of …

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Building Financial Danger – December 20, 2011 Update

On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief third update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. I have written numerous posts of some of what I consider both ongoing and recent “negative …

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