Notable S&P500 Price Action

The climb in the S&P500 has been notable over the last few sessions.  According to SentimenTrader.com, through yesterday, “Yet another up day pushed the S&P 500 futures to its 10th straight gain, only the second time since their inception (01/15/87 was the other).” Here is a chart of the S&P500 price action of the last …

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2010 S&P500 Earnings Projections

Tommorrow’s Barron’s cover story has forecasts provided by 12 strategists and investment managers.   I would like to highlight their S&P500 earnings forecasts for 2010.  As seen on page 28, the average of the 12 stated forecasts is $75.75. From what I have seen, this $75 level is very common among forecasters, and as such seems like the predominant forecast for …

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When Might I Become “Bullish”?

In this post I would like to respond to a question that was raised in response to the final post (November 6) of my “Danger In The Markets?” series. The question raised was “What would have to occur before you considered moving bullish?” I will answer this question in the context of the general stock market …

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Peril In The Markets? Part V

For this last post of this blog series, I will comment on the VIX. As seen below, if one looks casually at the VIX daily chart, there doesn’t seem to be much to be concerned about: Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com   However, I would like to make a couple of observations.  First, as one can …

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Peril In The Markets? Part IV

The price action in the S&P500 since the March low at ~666 has struck me as being very “impulsive.”  This is certainly a cause for concern.  Also, there certainly has not been any significant “wall of worry” that one would expect given the fundamentals. The charts seen in this post are from Maurice Walker, http://thechartpatterntrader.com.  First, a …

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Is The Stock Market Rally a ‘Validation’?

As seen in the Fortune story of June 15 titled “Economy in ‘early stages of repair’”: “The stock market’s rally serves as “broad validation” of the Obama administration’s financial rescue efforts, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said Monday.” While ostensibly this is correct, and commonly-held theory states that a stock market rally would precede an economic …

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“Opportunity of a Lifetime”?

One phrase that I have heard mentioned a few times is that the economic and market declines of 2008-early2009 created a “Opportunity of a Lifetime” to buy stocks, businesses, and other assets. I am not sure what reasoning is used to justify the “Opportunity of a Lifetime” phrase (and no reasoning has been provided).  It would …

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