The S&P500 And Chinese Stock Market

Over the last few months a notable divergence has occurred between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets. Two charts illustrate this divergence.  The first shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com The second chart shows a chart of FXI, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index.  This chart …

Read more

Stock Market Capitalization As A % Of GDP

Recent statistics indicate that the stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP appears to again be over 100%. This is an elevated level from a historical perspective. I’ve written of this metric before in an article titled “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” I feel that for many reasons this is an important …

Read more

Notable S&P500 Price Action

The climb in the S&P500 has been notable over the last few sessions.  According to SentimenTrader.com, through yesterday, “Yet another up day pushed the S&P 500 futures to its 10th straight gain, only the second time since their inception (01/15/87 was the other).” Here is a chart of the S&P500 price action of the last …

Read more

2010 S&P500 Earnings Projections

Tommorrow’s Barron’s cover story has forecasts provided by 12 strategists and investment managers.   I would like to highlight their S&P500 earnings forecasts for 2010.  As seen on page 28, the average of the 12 stated forecasts is $75.75. From what I have seen, this $75 level is very common among forecasters, and as such seems like the predominant forecast for …

Read more

When Might I Become “Bullish”?

In this post I would like to respond to a question that was raised in response to the final post (November 6) of my “Danger In The Markets?” series. The question raised was “What would have to occur before you considered moving bullish?” I will answer this question in the context of the general stock market …

Read more

Peril In The Markets? Part V

For this last post of this blog series, I will comment on the VIX. As seen below, if one looks casually at the VIX daily chart, there doesn’t seem to be much to be concerned about: Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com   However, I would like to make a couple of observations.  First, as one can …

Read more

Peril In The Markets? Part IV

The price action in the S&P500 since the March low at ~666 has struck me as being very “impulsive.”  This is certainly a cause for concern.  Also, there certainly has not been any significant “wall of worry” that one would expect given the fundamentals. The charts seen in this post are from Maurice Walker, http://thechartpatterntrader.com.  First, a …

Read more

Is The Stock Market Rally a ‘Validation’?

As seen in the Fortune story of June 15 titled “Economy in ‘early stages of repair’”: “The stock market’s rally serves as “broad validation” of the Obama administration’s financial rescue efforts, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said Monday.” While ostensibly this is correct, and commonly-held theory states that a stock market rally would precede an economic …

Read more