“A S&P500 Target Of 100?” Revisited

In March of 2009 I wrote an article titled “A S&P500 Target of 100?” I am sure that the mere idea of such a target seems impossible to many.  However, for a variety of reasons, many indicated in the aforementioned article, I believe that such a target is not only possible but increasing in likelihood. … Read more “A S&P500 Target Of 100?” Revisited

S&P500 Price Projections

The June 9, 2010  Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast.  It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2010   1115.0 Dec. 31, 2010    1187.6 June 30, 2011   1243.5 Dec. 30, 2011    1280.0 These figures represent the median value across the 40 forecasters on the survey’s panel. … Read more S&P500 Price Projections

S&P500 Earnings Forecasts & Forecast Accuracy

On June 1 The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Analysts Cheer For Recovery.” From the article:  “Current estimates put the S&P 500 on track for earnings per share of $85.26 this year, according to Thomson Reuters, a return to 2007 levels. Analysts’ $96.61 forecast for 2011 earnings would mark a record that surpasses … Read more S&P500 Earnings Forecasts & Forecast Accuracy

The Stock Market – Continued Weakness?

With the ongoing problems in Europe, fears of worldwide economic “contagion”, and many overt signs of economic slowing in the United States, one is led to wonder how susceptible the U.S. stock markets are to further declines. While I have written extensively about how I believe the stock market will face an exceedingly large decline … Read more The Stock Market – Continued Weakness?

S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2010 & 2011

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates on a quarterly basis. Currently, their estimates for 2010 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $81.72/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $71.32/share -From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $64.84/share Currently, their estimates for … Read more S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2010 & 2011

The S&P500 And Chinese Stock Market

Over the last few months a notable divergence has occurred between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets. Two charts illustrate this divergence.  The first shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com The second chart shows a chart of FXI, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index.  This chart … Read more The S&P500 And Chinese Stock Market

Stock Market Capitalization As A % Of GDP

Recent statistics indicate that the stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP appears to again be over 100%. This is an elevated level from a historical perspective. I’ve written of this metric before in an article titled “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” I feel that for many reasons this is an important … Read more Stock Market Capitalization As A % Of GDP