America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, below are four charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money Stock” …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September, last updated on October 28, 2014. This value is 241,633 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 23, 2014: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of October 17, 2014 (incorporating data through …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 16, 2014 update (reflecting data through October 10) is -1.065. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 16, 2014 update (reflecting data through October 10) is -1.065. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 2, 2014 update (reflecting data through September 26) is -1.137. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the October 2014 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties.” One area of the report is figure 1.12 on page 14. While I do not agree with the current readings of the three measures presented – Probability of Recession, Probability of Deflation, and the “Deflation …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 25, 2014 update (reflecting data through September 19) is -1.189. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …