America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2015, and were last updated as of January 29, 2016. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate at .7%, Down from Q3 Third Estimate” post of January 29, 2016, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q4 2015 Advance Estimate (pdf) of January 29, 2016: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December, updated on January 28, 2016. This value is $225,422 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 21, 2016 update (reflecting data through January 15) is -.416. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 22, 2016: (current reading of -.22; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.24): – The ECRI WLI (Weekly …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 21, 2016 update (reflecting data through January 15) is -.416. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of January 15, 2016, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 7, 2016 update (reflecting data through January 1) is -.607. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of that measure, with a current reading (updated …