America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, …
Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators indicate sustained economic growth and financial stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is in many ways incorrect. There are many exceedingly problematical financial conditions that have existed prior …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through July 2023. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through June 2023, updated on July 27, 2023. This value is $302,489 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of July 28, 2023 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment Soars to Highest Level Since October 2021“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 10, 2023, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2023.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
On Wednesday, July 26, 2023 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled July 2023 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of …
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2023, and were last updated as of July 27, 2023. Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 1.446: Data Source: FRED, Federal …