America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The May NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 11, 2024. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Uncertainty Index Reaches Highest Level Since 2020.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by .8 point to 90.5. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree …
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at elevated levels. As seen …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2024:Q1). The last value (as of the June 7, 2024 update) is $160.843732 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of June 7, 2024 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $5.1 Trillion in Q1.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: As seen in …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
On June 6, 2024, the Fannie Mae Q2 2024 Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Various Q2 2024 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey information is available, including the chart seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, …