America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The June 2019 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on June 7, 2019 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Jun. 28, 2019 2860.0 Dec. 31, 2019 2900.0 June 30, 2020 2950.0 Dec. 31, 2020 3042.7 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2019:Q1). The last value (as of the June 6, 2019 update) is $108.643051 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of June 6, 2019 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased in Q1.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 30, 2019 update (reflecting data through May 24, 2019) is -1.244. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Monday’s (June 3, 2019) close, which had a closing value of 18.86. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …