America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 25, 2019 update (reflecting data through July 19, 2019) is -1.334. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 8, 2019, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2019.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2019, and were last updated as of July 26, 2019. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.332: Data Source: FRED, …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Doug Short site post of July 26, 2019 titled “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.1%, Better Than Expected” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) (pdf) of July 26, 2019: _________ I post …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The post on the Doug Short site of July 25, 2019, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index …
On July 25, 2019, the Zillow Q2 2019 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the press release: Home value appreciation has slowed over the past several months, from 8.1% annual growth in December 2018 to 5.2% in June 2019 – the slowest annual pace since 2015. The expected decline …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through June 2019, updated on July 25, 2019. This value is $245,958 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …