America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, …
Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators portray a short period (through mid-2020) of substantial U.S. economic decline, followed by a sustained significant economic rebound and then financial system stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through January 2021. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of January 11, 2021, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2021.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of January 29, 2021 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment…“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings and trends …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
On January 28, 2021 Gallup released the poll results titled “Americans’ Economic Mood Sinks for Second Straight Month.” Notable excerpts include: Americans’ assessments of the U.S. economy worsened in January after an even larger stumble in December, but following seven months when economic perceptions had generally shown modest improvements. The five-point decline in Gallup’s Economic …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2020, and were last updated as of January 28, 2021. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = .995: Data Source: FRED, …
On Wednesday, January 27, 2021 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled January 2021 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of January 28, 2021 titled “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 4%,” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2020 (Advance Estimate) of January 28, 2021: _________ I post various indicators and …