America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through September 2021. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of October 1, 2021 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment…“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings and trends …
Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators portrayed a short period (through mid-2020) of substantial U.S. economic decline, and now indicate a significant economic rebound followed by sustained economic growth and financial stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 30, 2021 update (reflecting data through September 24, 2021) is -.7951: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through August 2021, updated on September 27, 2021. This value is $263,490 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2021:Q2). The last value (as of the September 23, 2021 update) is $141.667529 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …