America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2018:Q4). The last value (as of the March 7, 2019 update) is $104.329232 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of March 7, 2019 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth decreased in Q4.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2018, and were last updated as of February 28, 2019. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.337: Data Source: FRED, …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Doug Short site post of February 28, 2019 titled “Q4 GDP ‘Initial’ Estimate: Real GDP at 2.6%” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product Fourth Quarter and Annual 2018 (Initial Estimate) (pdf) of February 28, 2019: _________ I …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money …
As reference, here is a long-term chart of the S&P500 (top plot) and 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield (bottom plot) since 1980, depicted on a monthly basis through the February 21, 2019 closing values: (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2018, updated on February 21, 2019. This value is $254,445 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through February 15, 2019) from the Doug Short …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others …