America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Doug Short had a blog post of July 31, 2015 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Small Decline but Still Positive Trend“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2015, and were last updated as of July 30, 2015. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate at 2.3%, Close to Mainstream Forecasts” post of July 30, 2015, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q2 2015 Advance Estimate (pdf) of July 30, 2015: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through June, updated on July 27, 2015. This value is $235,337 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge images) …
This post provides an update to various past posts discussing deflation and “deflationary pressures,” including the most recent post, that of January 27, 2015 titled “U.S. Deflation – January 27, 2015 Update.” I have extensively written of “deflationary pressures” and deflation as I continue to believe that prolonged U.S. deflationary conditions are on the …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
For references purposes, below are two charts that show the trend in interest rates for various Treasuries, including the 3-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year, and 10-Year. A chart showing the interest rate trends of the last 20 years, on a monthly basis: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 73 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through July 9, 2015) from Doug Short’s blog …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of July 9, 2015, titled “Today’s Update: The Philly Fed ADS …