4Q Corporate Revenues

I have been looking at the revenue figures posted for a variety of diversified manufacturers and distributors.  These are well-respected, S&P500 firms. One would expect these firms to be posting decent revenue gains, especially as compared to the very weak year-ago period (4Q2008).  Additionally, these firms stand to benefit from the prevailing economic climate due …

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Ponzi Schemes

Occasionally I have written about investment frauds.  My last post on this topic was on November 27 and is found here: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/11/27/investment-frauds/ Here is a story from December 28 titled “Ponzi collapses nearly quadrupled in ’09”: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AP-Ponzi-collapses-nearly-apf-898755198.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode While I find this article’s statistics to be of interest, I do not necessarily agree with some of its …

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2010 S&P500 Earnings Projections

Tommorrow’s Barron’s cover story has forecasts provided by 12 strategists and investment managers.   I would like to highlight their S&P500 earnings forecasts for 2010.  As seen on page 28, the average of the 12 stated forecasts is $75.75. From what I have seen, this $75 level is very common among forecasters, and as such seems like the predominant forecast for …

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US Dollar and S&P500 Comments

Here are two charts that I find notable. The first is the daily chart of the US Dollar.  I have added the 50-day moving average.  As one can see, the trend seems to be “up.”  This increase, if sustained, will pressure the US Dollar carry trade and that would likely have an outsized negative impact on various markets: …

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Article On Asset Price Bubbles

In my opinion, the existence of asset price bubbles is of paramount importance. I have recently written a few posts on the subject.  I would now like to comment on a Wall Street Journal article from Monday titled “Economists Warn of Asset-Price Bubbles.”  Here is the link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126074172673289729.html First, I would like to reiterate that I …

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When Might I Become “Bullish”?

In this post I would like to respond to a question that was raised in response to the final post (November 6) of my “Danger In The Markets?” series. The question raised was “What would have to occur before you considered moving bullish?” I will answer this question in the context of the general stock market …

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Bubbles

from the November 3 FOMC Minutes: “Members noted the possibility that some negative side effects might result from the maintenance of very low short-term interest rates for an extended period, including the possibility that such a policy stance could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets or an unanchoring of inflation expectations. While members currently …

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Investment Frauds

In June I wrote a post about investment frauds.  That post can be found here: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/06/29/more-madoffs/ Since that June post, there have been a number of investment frauds uncovered.  Of course, none have rivaled the size of Madoff’s; however, they haven’t been small either. Perhaps the most disconcerting aspect of these frauds is that most …

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Another Thought On Gold

A November 20 Wall Street Journal article stated that Gold’s January 1980 record high would have an inflation-adjusted equivalent of $2,290/oz. I find it amazing  that even after the long parabolic rise we have seen in Gold since 2001, we are still far short of that inflation-adjusted price.  On an “all things considered” basis one …

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