The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The February 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 24, 2022:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of .69:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 24, 2022:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of .42:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed February 24, 2022:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of February 17, 2022, reflecting data from March 1, 1960 through February 12, 2022, with last value .710248:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the February 18, 2022 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Decreased in January” the LEI was at 119.6 in January, the CEI was at 107.9 in January, and the LAG was at 110.2 in January.
An excerpt from the release:
“The U.S. LEI posted a small decline in January, as the Omicron wave, rising prices, and supply chain disruptions took their toll,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Initial claims for unemployment insurance, consumers’ outlook and declines in stock prices, and the average work week in manufacturing all contributed to the decline—the first since February 2021.
“Despite this month’s decline and a deceleration in the LEI’s six-month growth rate, widespread strengths among the leading indicators still point to continued, albeit slower, economic growth into the spring. However, labor shortages, inflation, and the potential of new COVID-19 variants pose risks to growth in the near term. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth for Q1 to slow somewhat from the very rapid pace of Q4 2021. Still, the US economy is projected to expand by a robust 3.5 percent year-over-year in 2022—well above the pre-pandemic growth rate, which averaged around 2 percent.”
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4174.87 as this post is written