The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The August 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 23, 2021:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of .53:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 23, 2021;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of .23:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 23, 2021;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of August 13, 2021 (incorporating data through August 6, 2021) the WLI was at 152.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.8%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Advisor Perspectives’ ECRI update post of August 13, 2021:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
The ADS Index as of August 19, 2021, reflecting data from August 14, 2020 through August 14, 2021:
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the August 19, 2021 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July” the LEI was at 116.0 in July, the CEI was at 105.6 in July, and the LAG was n/a.
An excerpt from the release:
“The U.S. LEI registered another large gain in July, with all components contributing positively,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The Leading Index’s overall upward trend, which started with the end of the pandemic-induced recession in April 2020, is consistent with strong economic growth in the second half of the year. While the Delta variant and/or rising inflation fears could create headwinds for the US economy in the near term, we expect real GDP growth for 2021 to reach 6.0 percent year-over-year, before easing to a still robust 4.0 percent growth rate for 2022.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of August 19, 2021:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4480.51 as this post is written