The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The June 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 21, 2021:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of .29
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of .81
As of June 18, 2021 (incorporating data through June 11, 2021) the WLI was at 157.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at 19.3%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Advisor Perspectives’ ECRI update post of June 18, 2021:
The ADS Index, from 6-12-2020 through 6-12-21:
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), Coincident Economic Index (CEI), and Lagging Economic Index (LAG):
As per the June 17, 2021 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in May” the LEI was at 114.5, the CEI was at 105.1, and the LAG was 103.0 in May.
An excerpt from the release:
“After another large improvement in May, the U.S. LEI now stands above its previous peak reached in January 2020 (112.0), suggesting that strong economic growth will continue in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Strengths among the leading indicators were widespread, with initial claims for unemployment insurance making the largest positive contribution to the index; housing permits made this month’s only negative contribution. The Conference Board now forecasts real GDP growth in Q2 could reach 9 percent (annualized), with year-over-year economic growth reaching 6.6 percent for 2021.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of June 17, 2021:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4224.79 as this post is written