The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The August 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 24, 2020:
The CFNAI, with a current reading of 1.18:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 24, 2020;
The CFNAI-MA3, with a current reading of 3.59:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 24, 2020;
As of August 21, 2020 (incorporating data through August 14, 2020) the WLI was at 137.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.7%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Advisor Perspectives’ ECRI update post of August 21, 2020:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the August 20, 2020 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July” the LEI was at 104.4, the CEI was at 99.2, and the LAG was 109.2 in July.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI increased for the third consecutive month in July, albeit at a slower pace than the sharp increases in the previous two months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Despite the recent gains in the LEI, which remain fairly broad-based, the initial post-pandemic recovery appears to be losing steam. The LEI suggests that the pace of economic growth will weaken substantially during the final months of 2020.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Advisor Perspectives’ Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of August 20, 2020:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3418.41 as this post is written