The February 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 13, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus Likely to Hit First-Quarter U.S. Growth.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Some 35% of economists expect the next recession will start in 2021, up from 30.9% last month’s survey, while 29.7% expect one to start in 2022. Just 10.8% see a recession starting this year.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 25.6%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 67%. For reference, the average response in January’s survey was 23.97%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 63 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted February 7 – February 11, 2020.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2020: 1.88%
full-year 2021: 1.94%
full-year 2022: 1.91%
December 2020: 3.60%
December 2021: 3.81%
December 2022: 4.01%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2020: 1.98%
December 2021: 2.20%
December 2022: 2.44%
December 2020: 1.92%
December 2021: 2.15%
December 2022: 2.20%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2020: $54.75
for 12/31/2021: $56.00
for 12/31/2022: $56.02
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3376.38 as this post is written