The February 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 13, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus Likely to Hit First-Quarter U.S. Growth.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
An excerpt:
Some 35% of economists expect the next recession will start in 2021, up from 30.9% last month’s survey, while 29.7% expect one to start in 2022. Just 10.8% see a recession starting this year.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 25.6%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 67%. For reference, the average response in January’s survey was 23.97%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 63 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted February 7 – February 11, 2020.
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Economic Forecasts
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2020: 1.88%
full-year 2021: 1.94%
full-year 2022: 1.91%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2020: 3.60%
December 2021: 3.81%
December 2022: 4.01%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2020: 1.98%
December 2021: 2.20%
December 2022: 2.44%
CPI:
December 2020: 1.92%
December 2021: 2.15%
December 2022: 2.20%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2020: $54.75
for 12/31/2021: $56.00
for 12/31/2022: $56.02
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3376.38 as this post is written