The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The January 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 22, 2020:
The CFNAI, with current reading of -.35:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 22, 2020;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of -.23:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 22, 2020;
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of January 17, 2020 (incorporating data through January 10, 2020) the WLI was at 150.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 4.4%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short site’s ECRI update post of January 17, 2020:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Below is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through January 11, 2020:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the December 19, 2019 Conference Board press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. was Unchanged in November” the LEI was at 111.6, the CEI was at 106.8, and the LAG was 108.7 in November.
An excerpt from the release:
The US LEI was unchanged in November after three consecutive monthly declines. Strength in residential construction, financial markets, and consumers’ outlook offset weakness in manufacturing and labor markets,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While the six-month growth rate of the LEI remains slightly negative, the Index suggests that economic growth is likely to stabilize around 2 percent in 2020.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of December 19, 2019:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3328.81 as this post is written