Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The November 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 25, 2019:
The CFNAI, with current reading of -.71:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November 25, 2019;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of -.31:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November 25, 2019;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of November 22, 2019 (incorporating data through November 15, 2019) the WLI was at 147.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 1.1%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of November 22, 2019:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through November 16, 2019:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the November 21, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Slightly” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.7, the CEI was at 106.5, and the LAG was 108.1 in October.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI declined for a third consecutive month, and its six-month growth rate turned negative for the first time since May 2016. The decline was driven by weaknesses in new orders for manufacturing, average weekly hours, and unemployment insurance claims,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The major difference this month is the softening in the labor market, whereas conditions in manufacturing remain weak and show no signs of improvement yet. Taken together, the LEI suggests that the economy will end the year on a weak note, at just below 2 percent growth.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of November 22, 2019:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3129.69 as this post is written