Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The September 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 23, 2019:
The CFNAI, with current reading of .10:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, September 23, 2019;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of -.06:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, September 23, 2019;
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of September 20, 2019 (incorporating data through September 13, 2019) the WLI was at 146.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at -1.5%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of September 20, 2019:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through September 14, 2019:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the September 19, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Remained Unchanged in August” (pdf) the LEI was at 112.1, the CEI was at 106.4, and the LAG was 108.2 in August.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI remained unchanged in August, following a large increase in July. Housing permits and the Leading Credit Index offset the weakness in the index from the manufacturing sector and the interest rate spread,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The recent trends in the LEI are consistent with a slow but still expanding economy, which has been primarily driven by strong consumer spending and robust job growth.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of September 19, 2019:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2991.78 as this post is written