Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The August 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 26, 2019, has a current value of -.36. The CFNAI-MA3 has a current value of -.14.
A chart of the CFNAI and components, from 2017, as seen on the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago site:
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of August 23, 2019 (incorporating data through August 16, 2019) the WLI was at 143.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at -1.3%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of August 23, 2019:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through August 17, 2019:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the August 22, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July” (pdf) the LEI was at 112.2, the CEI was at 106.2, and the LAG was 108.5 in July.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI increased in July, following back-to-back modest declines. Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, stock prices and the Leading Credit Index were the major drivers of the improvement,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “However, the manufacturing sector continues exhibiting signs of weakness and the yield spread was negative for a second consecutive month. While the LEI suggests the US economy will continue to expand in the second half of 2019, it is likely to do so at a moderate pace.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of August 22, 2019:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2878.38 as this post is written