Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The July 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 22, 2019:
The CFNAI, with current reading of -.02:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 22, 2019;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of -.26:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 22, 2019;
As of July 19, 2019 (incorporating data through July 12, 2019) the WLI was at 145.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at -.7%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of July 19, 2019:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through July 13, 2019:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the July 18, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined in June” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.5, the CEI was at 105.9, and the LAG was 107.7 in June.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI fell in June, the first decline since last December, primarily driven by weaknesses in new orders for manufacturing, housing permits, and unemployment insurance claims,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “For the first time since late 2007, the yield spread made a small negative contribution. As the US economy enters its eleventh year of expansion, the longest in US history, the LEI suggests growth is likely to remain slow in the second half of the year.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of July 18, 2019:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2985.14 as this post is written