Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The May 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 20, 2019:
The CFNAI, with current reading of -.45:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, May 20, 2019;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of -.32:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, May 20, 2019;
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of May 17, 2019 (incorporating data through May 10, 2019) the WLI was at 146.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at .2%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of May 17, 2019:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through May 11, 2019:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the May 17, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in April” (pdf) the LEI was at 112.1, the CEI was at 105.7, and the LAG was 107.2 in April.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI rose in April, the third consecutive increase, with a majority of the leading indicators making positive contributions,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Stock prices, financial conditions, and consumers’ outlook on the economy buoyed the US LEI, although the manufacturing sector showed continuing weakness. The Conference Board expects economic growth to moderate toward 2 percent by year end. The current expansion will enter its 11th year in July, becoming the longest expansion in US history.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of May 17, 2019:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2844.93 as this post is written