Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The January 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 28, 2019:
The CFNAI, with current reading of .27:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 28, 2019;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .16:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 28, 2019;
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of January 25, 2019 (incorporating data through January 18, 2019) the WLI was at 145.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at -5.3%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of January 25, 2019:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through January 19, 2019:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the January 24, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.7, the CEI was at 105.1, and the LAG was 106.7 in December.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI declined slightly in December and the recent moderation in the LEI suggests that the US economic growth rate may slow down this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While the effects of the government shutdown are not yet reflected here, the LEI suggests that the economy could decelerate towards 2 percent growth by the end of 2019.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of January 24, 2019:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2636.93 as this post is written