Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The October 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 22, 2018:
The CFNAI, with current reading of .17:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 22, 2018;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .21:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 22, 2018;
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of October 19, 2018 (incorporating data through October 12, 2018) the WLI was at 147.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at .1%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of October 19, 2018:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through October 13, 2018:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the October 18, 2018 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in September” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.8, the CEI was at 104.4, and the LAG was 105.3 in September.
An excerpt from the release:
“The US LEI improved further in September, suggesting the US business cycle remains on a strong growth trajectory heading into 2019. However, the LEI’s growth has slowed somewhat in recent months, suggesting the economy may be facing capacity constraints and increasingly tight labor markets,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director and Global Research Chair at The Conference Board. “Economic growth could exceed 3.5 percent in the second half of 2018, but, unless the momentum in housing, orders and stock prices accelerates, that pace is unlikely to be sustained in 2019.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of October 19, 2018:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2761.97 as this post is written