Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the October 25, 2018 update (reflecting data through October 19, 2018) is -1.125. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Employment Cost Index (ECI) – Third Quarter 2018

While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index:  what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly … Read moreEmployment Cost Index (ECI) – Third Quarter 2018

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of October 30, 2018

The Doug Short site had a post of October 30, 2018 (“Consumer Confidence Up Again in October“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of October 30, 2018

Four Charts Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility – October 30, 2018

This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent volatility in the stock market. Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility is … Read moreFour Charts Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility – October 30, 2018

Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q2 2018

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of October 4, 2018, titled “Recession Probability Models – October 2018.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read moreAnother Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q2 2018

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through October 26, 2018

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2018, and were last updated as of October 26, 2018. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.326: Data Source: FRED, … Read moreVelocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through October 26, 2018

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 3rd Quarter 2018

For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Doug Short site post of October 26, 2018 titled “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 3.5%” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product Q3 2018 Advance Estimate (pdf) of October 26, 2018: _________ I post various indicators and indices … Read moreReal GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 3rd Quarter 2018

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through September 2018

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September 2018, updated on October 25, 2018. This value is $262,098 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through September 2018

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the October 18, 2018 update (reflecting data through October 12, 2018) is -1.108. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Money Supply Charts Through September 2018

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM … Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through September 2018