Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The September 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 24, 2018:
The CFNAI, with current reading of .18:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, September 24, 2018;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .24:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, September 24, 2018;
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of September 21, 2018 (incorporating data through September 14, 2018) the WLI was at 148.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at .2%.
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through September 15, 2018:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the September 20, 2018 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in August” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.2, the CEI was at 104.3, and the LAG was 105.4 in August.
An excerpt from the release:
“The leading indicators are consistent with a solid growth scenario in the second half of 2018 and at this stage of a maturing business cycle in the US, it doesn’t get much better than this,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The US LEI’s growth trend has moderated since the start of the year. Industrial companies that are more sensitive to the business cycle should be on the lookout for a possible moderation in economic growth in 2019. The strengths among the LEI’s components were very widespread, further supporting an outlook of above 3.0 percent growth for the remainder of 2018.”
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2916.05 as this post is written