Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The February 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 26, 2018:
The CFNAI, with current reading of .12:
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, February 26, 2018;
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .17:
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, February 26, 2018;
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of February 23, 2018 (incorporating data through February 16, 2018) the WLI was at 149.0 and the WLI, Gr. was at 7.5%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of February 23, 2018:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through February 17, 2018:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the February 22, 2018 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in January” (pdf) the LEI was at 108.1, the CEI was at 103.0, and the LAG was 104.0 in January.
An excerpt from the release:
“The U.S. LEI accelerated further in January and continues to point to robust economic growth in the first half of 2018. While the recent stock market volatility will not be reflected in the U.S. LEI until next month, consumers’ and business’ outlook on the economy had been improving for several months and should not be greatly impacted,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The leading indicators reflect an economy with widespread strengths coming from financial conditions, manufacturing, residential construction, and labor markets.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of February 22, 2018:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2759.69 as this post is written