Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the January 25, 2018 update (reflecting data through January 19, 2018) is -1.463. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Employment Cost Index (ECI) – Fourth Quarter 2017

While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index:  what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly … Read moreEmployment Cost Index (ECI) – Fourth Quarter 2017

The State of the Union Address – Notable Excerpts

I found President Trump’s State of the Union Address last night (January 30, 2018) to contain some noteworthy comments.  While I could comment extensively on many parts of the speech, for now I will indicate excerpts that I found most relevant with regard to the economic situation, and may comment upon them at a future point.  I … Read moreThe State of the Union Address – Notable Excerpts

Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q3 2017

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of January 4, 2018, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2018.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read moreAnother Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q3 2017

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through January 26, 2018

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2017, and were last updated as of January 26, 2018.  As one can see, two of the three measures are very near … Read moreVelocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through January 26, 2018

Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 4th Quarter 2017

For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.6%” post of January 26, 2018, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q4 2017 Advance Estimate (pdf) of January 26, 2018: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they … Read moreReal GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 4th Quarter 2017

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through December 2017

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2017, updated on January 26, 2018. This value is $249,448 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through December 2017

10-Year Treasury Yields – Two Long-Term Charts As Of January 26, 2018

I have written extensively about U.S. interest rates and their importance.  Rising interest rates have substantial ramifications for many aspects of the current-day economy.  My commentaries with regard to interest rates and the bond bubble are largely found under the “bond bubble” tag.   From an intervention perspective commentary is found under the “Intervention” category. … Read more10-Year Treasury Yields – Two Long-Term Charts As Of January 26, 2018

S&P500 And Long-Term VIX Chart – Through January 24, 2018

For reference purposes, below is a chart of the S&P500 and VIX from year 2003 through Wednesday’s (January 24, 2018) close.  The closing price for the S&P500 was 2837.54 and the VIX had a closing value of 11.47.  A dashed blue line depicts the VIX value of 20.  Price labels are also shown: (click on … Read moreS&P500 And Long-Term VIX Chart – Through January 24, 2018

Level Of Peril In The Financial System

On this site numerous highly problematical issues concerning the U.S. economy and financial system have been discussed. Of key importance is the resulting level of risk and future implications. As discussed in the September 29, 2017 post (“Problematical Aspects Of Today’s Financial System“) the almost universal opinion is that the financial system is strong, in … Read moreLevel Of Peril In The Financial System