Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the January 25, 2018 update (reflecting data through January 19, 2018) is -1.463. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …

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Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q3 2017

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of January 4, 2018, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2018.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …

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Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 4th Quarter 2017

For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.6%” post of January 26, 2018, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q4 2017 Advance Estimate (pdf) of January 26, 2018: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through December 2017

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2017, updated on January 26, 2018. This value is $249,448 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …

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10-Year Treasury Yields – Two Long-Term Charts As Of January 26, 2018

I have written extensively about U.S. interest rates and their importance.  Rising interest rates have substantial ramifications for many aspects of the current-day economy.  My commentaries with regard to interest rates and the bond bubble are largely found under the “bond bubble” tag.   From an intervention perspective commentary is found under the “Intervention” category. …

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Level Of Peril In The Financial System

On this site numerous highly problematical issues concerning the U.S. economy and financial system have been discussed. Of key importance is the resulting level of risk and future implications. As discussed in the September 29, 2017 post (“Problematical Aspects Of Today’s Financial System“) the almost universal opinion is that the financial system is strong, in …

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